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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (82270)12/21/2000 9:00:08 AM
From: hitsoft17  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
cnyndwllr, Nice assessment. My adder would be this.......

One thing that has always been present in any serious "for real" downturn/recession is a building fear in people that they will lose their jobs. When this starts to take hold it sets in motion a downward spiraling sequence of events that the FED or noone else can stop. When this happens there is severe impact on the retailers, financials, housing, autos, and virtually everything else.

I have been watching and I really don't see that starting to happen yet. Anyone who has been Christmas shopping knows that the consumer is NOT sitting home worried about his/her job!! I have a friend that manages a general retail store for a large chain and indicates that the store is running 12% over last year at Christmas.

Also I can absolutely assure you that the techs that have been hit so hard are hiring to beat the band. They literally can't bring people in fast enough. CSCO, NT, DELL are examples.

I would add that housing starts are accelerating, not slowing and mortgage rates should keep it that way for a while. ( BTW I really like LOW here)

How about the rest of you? I will really start to worry when we see a 10 page cover story about all the folks that have been layed off in Businessweek ( of course that will be too late). I can't detect that it is coming anytime soon. Hopefully the FOMC will get a move on before serious job concerns start.

By the way, I support JimL's thoughts on gold and would add that fear will drive the price more than supply and demand if the NG mess gets any deeper.

Hitsoft17
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