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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (5736)	12/21/2000 9:19:28 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) of 19219

JT you are a braver man than me. The thing that knocks me down was yesterdays gap. On a 10yr daily chart it is clearly visible. A long dark candle. (On expanding negative breadth - holy cow). The odds are greater than even on a lower close today. Yesterday was a gearshift in the market. This was a bull market extraordinaire. I believe we have to see an extreme in VIX@35 - been there done that. We are within 10% or so for long term insiders to want to throw in the towel - those guys and girls who got in in 94. God knows about the 0800-GETMEOUT phonelines today. A lot of the generals are at LTCM lows or worse. Why not NDX? We are at(and one would expect) some really significant support levels but these were not really effective resistances over the past 2 years or so. The FED was in line and the market got smacked, PALM was better and it got smacked. LTCM is I think a good comparison except instead of the professionals being +10 x leveraged you have the individual investor. I have browsed over various panics LTCM98, ASIA97, IRR-XUBERANCE96, GULFWAR, OCT87. VIX@35 is nothing it reached 100+ in 87. TA deals with repeating patterns and probabilities. These crises are extreme distribution effects. TA does not work at these junctures to predict levels - that is why all my support/resistance level stuff is looking so flaky. I have no clue what works now - EWT /astrology/animal sacrifice. It is going to be a streetfight and if you buy in the next few days good luck to you. I need to see a nice reversal pattern. There are too many longs out there and they have probably bought their XMAS gifts and lost their receipts. The market always has a returns policy - its just that you dont always get the price you paid for it 1st time. -macavity

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