Londo:
Your post re. MCDE had some very valid points. It also contains some statements that appear to be founded in little familiarity with the sector. I'd like to begin to discuss your post, so that we can try to estimate a "takeout" value for MCDE. Huffman clearly has one of biotech's toughest jobs, timing-wise.
You hit on the key criticism for owning this stock. They need money. They will either need to do a highly dilutive deal or find some innovative bridge.
The in vitro essential gene program at the company was a disaster. They learned such, and have adopted a targeted approach.
>> they don't have any products, and just a ton of anti microbial research. <<
We spend a ton of time trying to value research. You can't just dismiss it as being without value.
Would you agree with that statement?
>> MCDE doesn't have enough cash to warrant a higher valuation. <<
Would you assign any value to their share of Iconix?
Would you agree that the self-funded programs at MCDE that should be evaluated in any valuation model? If so, what do you think such programs are worth, given the established drug discovery infrastructure?
Do you believe that there is value in the animal health program that is funded by Pfizer?
The cephalosporin with JNJ.... there is a toxicity issue with the first molecule (none observed in clinical trials that I know of, however!). There are also issues with formulation (solubility) of the sucker. If JNJ returns the program to MCDE, is there value there? There is a backup molecule with reduced toxicity and unlimited solubility at physiological pH. It has reduced activity against enterococcus, however. Is there value in the backup molecule?
Do you assign any value to the Daichi collaboration and the EPI program?
>> MCDE doesn't have enough cash to warrant a higher valuation. <<
Is this true, or has the market -- in the midst of tax selling -- discounted the value to an irrational degree? If you were a pharma executive, what would you pay for MCDE in cash? If you were the CEO at CBST, what price would you consider paying in shares?
TIA for any thoughtful answers. You will help all of us with strategy, going forward.
Rick |
