OT JimL and hitsoft17. With regard to signs that may point to an impending drop or rise in the nadaq, I noticed that Jim posted that amat was one he might watch for signs of a tech recovery. If we don't get the downdraft that I and hitsoft17 discount, amat might be one to watch, but I think the telecommunication stocks like nokia, erickson, and motorola will be leading indicators, followed by the chip stocks themselves and then a surge in selected chip equip makers like amat, mtsn, lrcx nvls, etc. The equip and chip stocks led last time and will again if things pick up, but their major momentum which has built up over the last 18 months requires a lot of new orders to sustain it.
The next big impetus for a strong updraft might come from wirelessing the rural areas and developing countries with mobile and fixed wireless creating a renewed incremental demand for mobile phones and gadgets, computers and all of the chip hungry infrastructure they require. The need and the demand are clear, the technology is there or nearly there and hopefully politics, oil and financing will allow it all to happen. As soon as I see signs of increased outlook for nokia and motorola, I will get really bullish. In the alternative, as soon as it appears that all of the bad news is priced in and all the mo-mo money is gone, it may well be a good time to start buying the exaggerated dips. Ed |
