I'd call it - daily COMP today - more of an inverted hammer than a spinning top... which, with confirmation, could signal a bottom reversal... Unfortunately, in combination with yesterday today also makes for an "in neck" formation (close slightly above big ugly yesterday's close - not at all dojistical, but I see the point about 6 billion shares going nowhere). If today's low doesn't hold firm, the downtrend would be considered ominously intact - i.e., we'd be expected very likely to move lower with dispatch. In accordance with today's theme, that would be the moment when the natives have broken up the encircled wagons, and have started shorting the defenders, but Audie Murphy, bravely ignoring the arrow in his thigh, leaps on a horse with his love interest and rides hard toward the hills.
Personally, I wouldn't even start getting confident on the long side until the gap is closed and the downtrend-line from the 12/13 intermediate high is broken. But that one's so steep, at a minimum sidling through it fairly soon would seem inevitable. Sure, you have to crawl before you can walk, but even starting to make significant impact on the downtrend from the pre-Labor Day high would still look like a major project - I draw it through pre-Labor Day / Election Day / Supreme Court Day, and estimate it would be passing through the middle 2900s today. Falling out the bottom of the in-neck low (today) would also look to me like falling out the bottom of the bearish-enough post-Labor Day trading channel... Needless to say, I would have a hard time interpreting that as what you'd call a positive for price action on the Nasdaq. |
