Putin Plans on Attack on Deepening Demographic Decline
stratfor.com
SUMMARY
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed solving the
country's demographic crisis by attracting Russians residing
elsewhere in the former Soviet Union to return to Russia. If
implemented, the plan - still under development - may help stem
Russia's demographic decline and improve its short-term economic
prospects. But over the long term, it would also carry
significant economic costs for - and heighten tensions between -
Russia and the other states of the former Soviet Union. And it
will do little to stop the shrinking of Russia's population.
ANALYSIS
On Nov. 17, during a visit to sparsely populated Siberia, Russian
President Vladimir Putin announced his intention to promote the
resettlement of ethnic Russians residing in the states of the
former Soviet Union to the Russian Far East. His objective is to
combat the country's demographic decline.
In April, Stratfor reported Russia's population would probably
drop below 90 million by 2050 due to various economic and
environmental factors. New statistics portend a deepening crisis.
In May, Meditsinskaya Gazeta, a medical journal, stated that only
10 percent of Russian births were healthy. In June, the State
Statistics Committee reported alcohol-related deaths had
increased by 43 percent over the previous year. A study released
that same month by Moscow's Family Research Institute discovered
that the deaths of two-thirds of men aged 20 to 55 were alcohol
related. Russia averages 146 suicides daily, and has a murder
rate four times that of the United States. In October, the State
Statistics Committee estimated that 1 million Russians become
invalids each year, and Dec. 4, Deputy Prime Minister Valentina
Matviyenko revealed that 7 percent of population - over 10
million people - were already physically handicapped.
Russia also has the dubious distinction of having the highest
death rate and lowest birth rate of any large country. Moreover,
Russia's HIV infection rate has soared in recent years, and the
Duma has voted to release some 200,000 tubercular prisoners,
raising the possibility that Russian mortality rates could
increase further.
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