But Eichler, it did not hit bottom on April 17, that was a sucker rally, the interim bottom was May 28 and whomever bought the April 17th rally and did not bail before the beginning of May, was devastated on that May bottom. Then we had a nice 50% or so rally in the Naz, but you knew it was a fakehead because that rally never got real solid buying (like an extremely positive tic, for instance). And while, like many here, I still expect a "Santa Claus" rally to start shortly (I have next Tuesday as a potential buying day), I still do not expect this rally to go further than the first or second week in January.
George is right, as long as the "Generals" (the Dow stocks) are still showing confidence, they have not been defeated. I believe that we will need to get very close to 9000 (on the Dow) or even breach this on the next down leg of this bear. Even then, don't count on a Fed interest rate reduction (some hope for late January, I think they'll stretch to March) to induce much more than another bear market rally. Right now, I still have lows in late February, lower lows in August and possibly even lower lows (or a double bottom) in October. This winter may extend until next Autumn, IMTO.
Zeev |
