VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Voltaire who wrote (26895)	12/22/2000 1:18:02 AM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (1) of 65232

Hey Voltaire: Just do your thing. Who really cares what other people think. The pessimism is rising so fast it's unbelievable. It's all over the place. On every thread. Now on TV in prime time with all the major newscasts as the lead story. What is the old saying about prime time public disclosure of these events or when something is put on the front pages of every newspaper. Just do the opposite which means "IT'S TIME TO BUY". Now is the time to take the contrarian view from this pessimism. I'm NOT suggesting LTB&H but buying on the dips from these levels on quality companies who dominate their niches has merit right now. I personally don't care for large cap companies who have huge floats right now though they will participate and probably lead in a strong bounce I see happening. But they won't double. But there are many quality mid cap companies with small floats that will. What are my reasons for this strong bounce I see coming. 1)The Fed will ease at least 100 basis points in the next 6 months with a 50 point ease in the next 6 weeks. DON'T FIGHT THE FED. 2)The bull is over with oil. In 2-3 months, the bull will run its course with natural gas. 3)The Fibannaci 61.8% retracement from the highs in March is almost complete. This has been quite accurate in the past in predicting bottoms or whirlwind trading turns. Let me emphasize that we ain't going back to 4000 but we should easily see 3000 at least. Then we hit that major distribution area where stocks are again considered expensive or what Wall Street refers to as fairly valued. 4)We have a government dominated by Republicans in all branches no matter what the Democrats think. Legislation will get through though watered down. 5)Unemployment is rising - the Wall Street whores love misery. 6)The bad news is at least 90% factored into most issues. 7)The IPO market is dead, thank goodness. It sucked up a lot of good money thrown after bad sh*t. 8)Today, the big pharmas dropped like a rock on the close on huge blocks. The smart money is starting to leave the "safe haven." The rotation into the beaten down stocks is beginning. I wonder which stocks are those. 9)The real estate title companies are hiring right now in anticipation of vigorous mortgage refinancing they see happening over the next year. More pocket change for consumers along with lower gas prices keeps us buying more stuff. 10)Finally, the negativity is rampant and rightly so. This leads to misery for many but opportunity to those who have survived. My only concerns are the following: 1)The Middle East may explode as Israel prepares for war on its Lebanon border. This is getting out of control and is starting to go beyond the rock throwing crap. 2)The power crisis in California is for real and quite serious and could undermine everything. The Clinton Administration never had a clue or a policy about energy or power. They only cared about saving birds or whatever. Their stupidity on these issues is mind boggling. Hopefully, Bush will be up to the task of correcting these issues or we will all be in deep doo-doo economically speaking. All the above is JMHO whatever that is worth. Good luck all. jmanvegas

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