I just crosspost this one from TMF, but it gives a estimate on what is going on at SNRS. You can argue with the numbers if you want.
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After the attack last Friday i did some number crunshing. I don't think there is a risk of market saturation in forseeable future as it has been suggested. Where would be a saturation anyway? 1 Hyperion per 100,000 US Americans? Per 1,000,000 Americans? I am sure we are looking at a 4 digits number of Hyperions, if not in the US, then worldwide. I don't think there will be a problem of selling 50 Hyperions a quarter to the market as well.
(All numbers are taken from the SEC filing).
48 Hyperions have been out on the end of Q3, generating equipment revenues of 8M (i.e. 200k each), and procedure revenues of 1.1M, or 23k per Hyperion. Assuming that the Hyperions were installed on a linear basis, we actually had 24 Hyperions out there at an average day during the quarter. Based on 24 Hyperions we look at 46k procedure fees per machine per quarter or 230 treatments (based on 200$ fee per treatment).
Cost of sales for equipment were 4.2M during the quarter (gross margin is 50%), but I will ignore this here assuming sales income will be equal to its antimatter cost of sales, marketing and development costs.
Cost of procedure revenues were 1k in Q3. So procedure fees are coming in at virtually no costs. Service income and costs were neutralizing each other.
Assuming SNRS is constantly selling 50 Hyperions/Q revenues from procedures (in my model they are equal to income, since all other sources of income equalizes with its costs) based on 200 procedures per Hyperion will be 2.8M in Q4, 4.6M in Q1 and 6.4M in Q2 (total revenues will be 11.8M, 13.6M and 15.4M respectively). I will subtract here 1M for Q1 and Q2 for various expenses (financing et al). Applying a P/E of 30, based on 50M shares I get a stock price of 7$, 9$ an 12$ in Q4, Q1 and Q2.
Not supersuper but coming from 3$ a reasonable chance to quadrouple in 8 month.
Numbers are sensitive to the average number of procedures. If you raise the assumption to 230 procedures per Hyperion and Quarter, we are looking at revs form procedures of 3.2M, 5.3M and 7.3M and a stock price of 8$, 10,5$ and 15,5$.
If they can increase sales and production, it the numbers will benefit as well.
Don't forget to do your own DD.
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MGV, where is your beef?
Michael |
