Hi Jim,
you wrote:5% of the S&P assets are in index funds, that 5% effects the market short term to a much greater extent than it's amount of assets would indicate.
Half of the 5% came in since 1997, it's been since then
that index funds have really caught on.
since I don't know for sure what the total assets of the S & P are I can't argue with that statement.
I can tell you that Vanguard got started in 1976 not 1997. It's asset size has grown from 1.8 billion in 1976 to 550 billion today. Vanguards first fund in 1976 was the S & P 500 Index fund which as of 11/30/00 had 89.4 Billion dollars under management. IMO because of Vanguards success there have been many copycat funds that have been started in the last few years. Many people credit John Bogle with being the father of Indexing.
I would also like ask you about something else you wrote. As I surf around on different threads here on SI I notice that they all seem to have some thing in common, namely the presence of a few gurus who throw numbers around willy nilly and statistical forecasts either of gloom and doom or great elation. You wrote:If you want to see where most investors are look at the Value Line.
I'm not making this up , I see a lot of accounts.
quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=5ym
That's what MOST buy and hold investors
have done, and CD returns have beat it
since 97. It better get back above 400 by years end, and I have my doubts that it will.
Could you please explain the mathematical relationship between VL 400 and 12/29/00. What will befall us if you are indeed correct and it doesn't "get back above 400 by years end"? Indeed, what would happen if it didn't get back above 400 by 1/19/01 or any other date you might think of.
I just happen to subscribe to Value Line and one the things I received with my subscription was a chart showing a Long Term Perspective which shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1920-1999. I would bet that were folks such as yourself making dire predictions during the period from 1929-1932, 1936-1937, 1961-1962, 1967-1970, 1972-1974, 1987-1988. All of those represented periods when the DJIA had greater than 20% declines. You know what when I take my glasses off and look at that chart those little blips disappear and I see a steadily rising line from left to right. I really don't need a response today. What I would like to see is a post on January 2,2000. Prove to me you were correct in your statement of 12/22/00. Maybe you could even give us monthly prognostications. Even Nostradamus was right every once in a while.
Bernie |
