Study: European GPRS Doomed to Fail
By David Haskin
Managing Editor, allNetDevices
December 21, 2000
European wireless operators are deploying faster wireless General
Packet Radio Service (GPRS), but like Wireless Application Protocol
(WAP), the service is misunderstood, overhyped and is unlikely to
achieve widespread acceptance, a new study predicted.
"WAP and GPRS represent major steps forward in cellular
technology," a new study by Aberdeen Group said. "Their failure lies
in the gross mismatch between reality and customer expectations.
This situation cannot continue as the (wireless) industry, once
saluted for its visionary capacity and slick delivery, now lurches
from one problem to the next."
The study, Cutting EDGE: The 3G Alternative, noted that "customer
expectations of streaming video and exotic applications (via GPRS)
are wildly off the mark." Among the reasons for that is, despite fast
GPRS speeds in theory, actual speeds of live networks are
estimated to be only 14Kbps to 28Kbps.
"For subscribers accustomed to high-speed, fixed-wire Internet
access, these transmission speeds are intolerable, even if GPRS is 'always on,'" the study
noted. "Combined with the scarcity of compatible handsets and inflated performance
expectations, these low transmission speeds put GPRS at an all-but-insurmountable
disadvantage from the outset."
The study suggested that GPRS will disappoint the industry in the same way as WAP did,
which was launched with soaring expectations that have yet to be met.
"WAP (has) less than two percent penetration and lower than 30 percent repeat users --
hardly a commercial success," the study noted. The study concluded that GPRS is unlikely
to reach 10 percent user penetration and it won't have much impact on existing low
usage of the wireless Internet.
Instead, technology using Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE), will quickly
supplant GPRS, the study predicted. EDGE is expected to begin deployment in the third
quarter of 2001, is another interim technology on the way to 3G, and supports speeds as
high as 380Kbps.
Making matters worse for GPRS, major phone vendors such as Ericsson and Motorola have
not announced many GPRS phones, the study said. It noted, however, that handset
availability is also an issue for EDGE.
As for WAP, the study noted its "underwhelming" acceptance in Europe, where the
greatest hope was held for it.
"The subscriber numbers (in Europe) are underwhelming, service offerings are spotty, and
the lack of handset availability (initially, at least) has worked to undermine the launch,"
the report noted. "One explicit lesson (to operators) was the importance of ensuring the
simultaneous launch of WAP infrastructure, handsets and applications."
The report also noted that operators could have done a better job of explaining to users
the nature of WAP access. Specifically, users were led to believe that the wireless Net
was "the Internet made mobile" when, in fact, it was a far more truncated experience.
"WAP's failure has created a high degree of subscriber skepticism regarding wireless data,"
the report noted.
Wireless operators would do well to learn from the success of NTT DoCoMo's i-mode, the
study said. For one thing, DoCoMo supported, but didn't control, implementation, which
led to greater development. This reflect's DoCoMo's understanding of the difference
between operating a voice service and a data service, the study noted. |
