Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX

UOPIX 143.70

+0.5%

Dec 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Bernie Goldberg who wrote (1032)	12/22/2000 1:57:31 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 2063

Well not to get real detailed but the value line had a base building just around the 400 level this year and I thought it would hold or go on up. I'm sure your aware that not many mutual funds beat or even match the S&P 500. There was more doing so prior to 97 than since, ( it's not exact by any means however if you take a composite of all stock mutual funds and use the value line index as a bench mark you won't be far off. ) Something that's not normal but will effect many funds this year is the Cap Gains Tax is going to exceed the their gains ( to such an extent for non tax deferred accounts that it's going to back them up two years ) -------------- It's just my gut feeling about the 400 being a point that may be acceptable for the buy and hold gang and below that is going to have their year end statements looking really shabby. --------------- I know the Vanguard index fund has been around a long time and is the leader in that category I was just referring to how "much" more indexing has caught on since the start of 97 , with a lot of copy cats also competing for assets. An idea of the increased popularity can be seen if you look at the volume on the SPY. quote.yahoo.com -------------- I tend to believe that the increase in indexing has had a lot to do with the increase in over all market volatility, and we may as well get use to it. How much volatility investors will adjust to is any bodies guess, it could start to scare the crap out of a lot of people. While I try to exploit the volatility , It worries me at more than I let on. I trade the QQQ more than any other index, and while I'm at an age that I stay 50% in bonds the other 50% is in and out so much that I'm a brokers dream come true. :-) I also leg in and out, at times swinging from QQQ to UOPIX or USPIX , I only use margin very short term and then just to swith from one to the other ahead of settelment. Like I'm in the UOPIX at this time, when & if the market hits my target I'll "may" short the QQQ midday to lock off my effective NAV..then sell UOPIX and cover the short at the days end. UOPIX ( long NDX ); and USPIX ( short NDX) are both leveraged funds and not for timid people. Jim

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