I therefore assume that the combined lily pond royalties are only those royalties over and above the royalties from WIND's traditional business.
You are correct. The lily ponds, AS PRESENTED, only represent a portion of WIND’s current royalty business. What you don’t see yet is how the lily pond model is blended into a forecasting model for WIND as a whole. That will come later, once we, as a group, get the lily pond model shaped up.
First, I want to thank Peter for a yeoman job in getting the lily pond model into HTML format. I think he took on something that proved bigger than what he intended, and we all owe him greatly for the work he has done.
Now it is our turn to refine the numbers to make the model as useful as practical. This is what I suggest: if anybody has access to relevant market research, please study that aspect of the lily pond model and suggest refinements. Feel free to communicate directly with me by email, or post your thoughts and observations. In some cases, we may need seek some guidance from the company – all in a very public forum, the Internet.
I will gather up the numbers and either make changes in the underlying spreadsheet, occasionally relaying it to Peter, or whoever is assigned, to maintain the lily pond site. The object is first to get the model in reasonable shape, and then to maintain it with updates as events take shape. As I said, later I will provide the forecasting counterpart (assuming Peter will have recovered enough by then to implement it as well).
Also, please feel free to discuss or ask questions about the model, underlying assumptions and, in particular, the all-important parameter values.
Let’s see if the Internet can model a company better than analysts can as individuals.
Once again, thanks to Peter.
Allen |
