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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Allen Benn who wrote (8956)12/22/2000 9:01:20 PM
From: James Connolly  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
Allen and others.

The wireless Internet lily pond jumps out at me as deserving some discussion. By FY 2005 the royalty income from the wireless Internet could make up 40% of the total lily pond royalty income. In order for this to happen the royalty income will need to increase from roughly $1 million this year to $688 million in FY 2005.
net-gain.com

Looking at the numbers in the spreadsheet 3 key factors are required to drive this.
1. Intel needs to get to a 30% market share by FY 2005.
This seems possible to me given that Intel has all the right technologies like XScale, Flash memory and now DSP. It's possible it might produce a highly integrated single chip solution at some point. It also has huge production capacity and the motivation to succeed given that PC sales are slowing.

2. WIND needs to be in about 50+% of these Intel devices.
We know that WIND and Intel have an XScale CoE so it's fare to say that WIND should be in some XScale devices. What do others think of the 50% number ? What will drive it to 50%.

3. WIND needs to be in about 30% of non-Intel wireless Internet devices.
WIND appears to be working with Motorola on this. We know this for sure because it was mentioned in one the PR's a while back. This area brings up a question. To succeed in this area does WIND need some kind of deal with QCOM ?

Regards
JC.

PS. Happy X-mas to all.
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