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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87481)12/22/2000 9:20:31 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
It seems that prices changes would be more continuous and smooth if they discounted the future as history unfolds smoothly for the most part -- there are shocks, but these are mostly to those who haven't been close to whatever is happening -- I think u are 100% right -- the market discounts perceptions -- perceptions are subject to much more wild swings than are actually encountered, e.g. the PC market, semi market

In my work I keep thinking we need to be looking for arbitrage opptys between electricity prices and fuel prices -- whenever I mention this to my boss or another fellow, they give me some dribble about efficient markets and the impossibility of the "differences" existing for any time period cause smarter players than us would recognize it and take advantage ... of course someone has to take the positions that result in the arb potential going away, right? You simply don't know if something is out-of-kilter unless you take a hard look at the facts, try to understand the perceptions of the players and how they might unfold.
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