I think the Nasdaq is going to zero and will be delisted, because US is going out of business and will file for BK one week after Merrill Lynch downgrades it.
On a serious note, I'm starting to think that this bear market, that has lasted for almost 9 month, is coming to an end.
1. Fed will cut,
2. Economy is still growing, only at a normal pace. As opposed to unusual 5-8% growth. Heck, most of the world can only envy 2-3% GDP growth.
3. Energy prices are on decline.
4. Inflation is moderating. ( I don't really beleive in official numbers, and I think we had inflation, but now its moderating, and its still pretty low).
5. Consumer confidence is still high, due to high employment.
I can already see light at the end of the tunnel.
I'm not saying that we'll see a new strong bull market forming here, but I'm not seeing continuation of the bear market either. Unless there will be serious detirioration in the economy I'm not expecting this market to go much lower.
IMO we are as low as it gets this time, or darn close to it.
I think its pretty safe to start putting money back in good companies with good management and solid fundamentals.
P.S. I heard a rumor that some analyst from CSFB will be downgrading Christmas. But since Christmas is still in business, I wish you all Happy Holidays.
:) |
