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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (5751)12/23/2000 3:38:49 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (4) of 19219
 
Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, December 22nd:

Regular Series:

SPX Long - NOVA     537.9  Million
SPX Short- URSA     251.5  Million

NDX Long - OTC      1,986` BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos   89.9   Million

XAU Precious Metals 46.1   Million 
Biotechnology       541    Million
Money Market        1,069  BILLION

*********************************************

Dynamic Series (200% correlation)

SPX Long - TITAN   115.6   Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST  32.3   Million 

NDX Long - VELOCITY 148.3  Million
NDX Short- VENTURE  33.9   Million

*********************************************

Santa lives. Melt Up City. NDX up a whopping 9.5% up 211 points to NDX 2,436 and has its 3rd or 4th largest one day gain ever. Even a Bear like me can't pass up these juicy type counter-trend returns. From last nights Rydex Update:

...<Tomorrow we have a 67% chance of being up thanks to 50 years of data by Stock Traders Almanac and considering we are still deeply oversold and in positive seasonal day tomorrow - it is a slam dunk to be LONG the Rydex NDX 100 OTC.

NDX Long OTC Total Assets are clearly at capitulation levels and we should bounce back above 1.9 Billion before moving back down>...

Notice we closed back above 1.9 Billion in NDX OTC as forecast.

This is Dead on the Money. We had one of our best weeks ever up 16% for the week trading rydex. Even in spite of NDX up 9.5% for the day, had you simply stayed bullish long in ndx otc all week long you would have been down 4.2% negative returns.

Look at how the total assets shroom in SPX Long NOVA and TITAN Funds IN ONE DAY.

SPX Long NOVA total assets haven't been this high since the close on Wednesday November 8th just before the SPX broke hard. SPX closed at SPX 1,409 that day and we are now 100 points lower on the SPX and you see total assets rising on lower registered SPX closes.

What does this mean?

The Long money is getting whipsawed so bad they aren't making any money EVEN ON THE COUNTER-TREND UP MOVES. And more money tries to get bullish after capitulation sets in at lower and lower levels. BEARISH contrary indicator..

BKX Analysis:

Watch the BKX from todays close and into Tuesday's intraday high. A 5 minute chart shows this rounding top as BKX did not participate in the final 15 minute melt-up in the market today . It simply stalled. I am anticipating an intrady high around BKX 910 before it turns back down.

Let these charts open up. If the screen shows up blank hit refresh and it should appear..

5 minute BKX:

charts-d.quote.com:443/977559492430?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=5&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

This 30 minute chart shows the strong move made to achieve this overbought condition

charts-d.quote.com:443/977559350550?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=30&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

The daily chart shows the 52 week high on September 12 at BKX 918.09. The all time high was set on April 27th, 1999 to close at BKX 934.81. Th all time intraday high was BKX 953.20 set on July 17th, 1998. It closed at BKX 926.73 on that day.

Daily BKX:

charts-d.quote.com:443/977559733820?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=D&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=RSI&Param1=5&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

Weekly BKX:

charts-d.quote.com:443/977560175210?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=W&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=RSI&Param1=5&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

The point of this BKX analysis is that it is this index that has kept the SPX from breaking much further than it did. And if SPX is going to continue to work lower BKX must turn back down within the next 2 trading days.

For the Bull argument, if we do in fact get into this BKX 920-930 area and in fact get back to back closes above BKX 935, then the SPX will have clearly bottomed and a new leader will emerge ala BKX and the SPX would then play piggyback moving back UP. BKX would then breakout and head toward BKX 1,000. I personally do not see this happening as Bank profits have been squeezed razor thin but I must come up with this alternate scenario nonetheless in case it surprises me and the BKX play is merely off of the fed cutting rates. Or moreover, that the BKX has been in this 3 year trading range and is now playing catch-up only reflecting its true inherent growth over the last few years.

I have been keeping a close tab on Rydex BKX total assets that I do not post on the daily update and this data is reflecting a clear overbought position.

Long 100% XAU Precious Metals for Tuesday.

Best Regards, J.T.
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