Well here's one note where he mentions JDSU.....
Navigating Tech Pitfalls
By James J. Cramer
Originally posted at 4:50 PM ET 12/20/00 on RealMoney.com
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You own no tech. You have been scared out of it or you gave up on it. You are thinking it is time to put money to work in the sector. I can't disagree, but I have to tell you of three pitfalls.
First, tech investors who are in complete denial are out in full force. There are plenty of people who still think everything is great a la Solectron (SLR:NYSE - news) or JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq - news). You can't be in something that hasn't cracked yet. I don't think any stock at this point will withstand the cracking.
Second, you can't be in one of these stocks that is down a lot but that came public at an inflated price already. How much would McData (MCDT:Nasdaq - news) be worth if it had come public a month ago? Or two years ago? I think that I wouldn't like McData if it traded at the price of McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - news). It simply started too high, so its discount form the high is irrelevant.
Third, with the possible exception of cell phones -- and note I say "possible" -- the fundamentals haven't bottomed yet. One look at Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC:Nasdaq - news) -- which was still going great guns as of yesterday AND is being added to the S&P -- tells me that there is a stock that is still being priced for perfection when perfection doesn't exist any more.
Finally, some of the biggest owners of these stocks are mutual fund folks who are down 40%, 50%, 60%, 70% and yes 80%. These guys don't know what has hit them. They are feeling foolish -- oops, I mean stupid! But they haven't even reacted yet. I think some of them are even cuffing their true returns! They will be liquidating from now until year-end. That's six business days, but six years in the life of a dog mutual fund. So pick away, but don't immerse. Too many sellers.
Random musings: Apologies to the good folks at Corning, Inc. (GLW:NYSE - news). I will no longer call it Corning Glass. It's a great company and will be a great stock again when the momentum folks clear out! |
