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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2642)	12/23/2000 3:39:49 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Hi Henry, The Feb Fed Funds rate was pricing in an 82% probability of a 50 basis point cut by Feb. is forecasting, imo, over 100 b.p. by June. the global economies are really slowing down recently. Liquidity concerns seem to be increasing in Asia, especially in Korea, and the BoJ is talking about deflation once again. You were spot on when I asked you several months ago about the yen, and you were looking for yen weakness over the intermediate term due to structural problems in Japan. a weak yen which took another hammering after the BOJ's Hayami acknowledged that the economy could slip back into deflation. A great trade would to have been to get long the Euro/short Yen on the cross, during the last week of Nov. The global stock indicies have been selling off, and since the equity markets have such an impact on the Global Economy these days I guess it makes sense that we'll see some fairly agressive easing by the FED in the next 6 months. Have a great Holiday. I'm goint to Tokyo on Tuesday, for a week. John

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