Hi Kenneth,
Thanks for the ZDnet article. I'm not quite convinced. I think I'll keep 3G in my crosshairs until someone can show me the money. This is the new mantra of the financier class, and what they believe matters. First out of the blocks with high data rate wireless services will be NTT's DoCoMO in Japan, which will extend its CHTML service to new categories. Then the European system will be developed. As always, the US appears hopelessly befuddled by the notion of standards and suitable spectrum allocation, prefering a hodgepodge of half baked solutions.
Advertised speed is 384 Kbps - Real throughput will appear to be about half this.
We are entering a new era of humility in hype. A year ago, QCOM, LU and others in the CDMA Development Group were touting 2Mbps for portable, rather than mobile wireless. My, my, seems that reality is biting, even before the ASICs have been taped. At this rate, by the time the actual network rolls out, we'll have a 64K network when it is moderately congested and worse when over-subscribed, as the service providers will need to be in order to run the numbers and justify the buildout.
I'm curious if anyone on the thread has seen the accounting studies (IRR projections, etc.) that the CFOs of Vodophone, DT, AWE and the other players have been using to justify the UMTS/3G auction bids. This has got to be some interesting reading....
Crosshairs, indeed.
Best, Ray :) |
