Leo Francis, if you're still around SI: regarding your "Any thoughts?" question:
Yeah, I shoulda bookmarked this thread. Maybe I woulda added more CAG to my small position when you did. It was a coulda,shouda, and didnt for me!
IMO, you possibly aren't going to get many accolades around here (on Silicon Investor) for buying a food stock, but IMHO, you did terrific. And considering how many SI people are down this year, I'd even say you did superbly on this stock. A wonderful example of buying more of what you have conviction in as it (the stock) declines. Looks simple in retrospect -- CAG is the #2 food co, so it's not likely to disappear -- but still, it's in tough, slow growth (imo) businesses and sells at a fairly high multiple. Not to mention it's a very out-of-favor company/business (again, imo).
If CAG can get back to a multiple of about 20 (which it has hit or exceeded in several of the past few years), we might see a stock price (if it makes its earnings projections of $1.81) mid-thirties next year. Just what you've predicted in June's post.
Always tough for me to add to my position in value stocks after they've climbed-- I've missed adding and missed the rise from roughly 15 to 25 (I've held my position during the drop and rise though); it's hard for me to add more now, but I will consider it.
Paul Senior
ps: Trying to build up my small position in TXT at lows. |
