I think you asked the million dollar question here. One of my "unofficial" laws I noticed in using my forks was when a really good fork like the one that has held all of the late 90s got violated, the usual whipsaw went about the same amount to the other extreme. I usually would have to widen the fork after that point but would change the color of the old one as things got back to "normal" a few months later. I have been wrestling with this the last couple months as the extreme outside the fork during the blowoff would take us to an opposite extreme that only Luc can contemplate. While I see the possibilities, I am not convinced that a slowdown of that magnitude is coming. Of course no one ever sees blowups of that size in advance. <NG> It is like the DOW diamond of a few months ago, we saw it and knew what it could mean, but how many of us actually went out and bought DOW 7000 puts. Not me.
As for the future. A poster on our CTXS board asked a very good question and has me thinking hard this weekend. He pointed out that technology does best coming out of recessions, not going into them and not in the middle of a economic bull. In other words, despite what many think, the best times in tech are historically over. I don't want to believe it but when you really think about it, he is right. While valuations have continued to go up astronomically, what real innovations are out there right now that are going to change the world compared to what the PC and internet have done the last 15 years? Sorry, cell phones and B2B don't cut it as the scale is no where near what happened in the growth of the PC into every home and business. I am bullish on the economy but when I think of what we are still paying for stocks right now and then think how much growth potential is still out there versus prices right now, it takes me aback. In other words, I would bet a new channel will grow out of this move when all is said and done.
Also, I want to re-emphasize someting Don said long ago and I fully endorse. After major market downturns, new leaders usually rise and the old ones are replaced and tend to under perform. Most of us are still watching the old Gorillas and will likely miss the new leadership.
Good Luck,
Lee |
