expand on your theory -- it is different
how can that many Naz $$'s disappear without changing the way people think about their spending, their money, and that not result in them making changes in what they spend and what they save?
Heard an interesting quote, on CNBS of all places, that "historians still debate whether the Great Depression caused the crash or whether the crash caused the Great Depression"
While I would agree that there are many other factors, I firmly believe that crashes are the single leading factors going into depressions or severe recessions.
Just take a look around you, what's the same as a year ago, what's different, and what do you see that will be different in 6-12 months should the market keep going down. Who knows someone that pulled $20K out of the market for a new car? Or $50K for a downpayment on a new house? Or a few $K for a vacation? etc, etc, etc
The bottom line is how much does this effect the overall economy and how many people are effected. To me, it seems like a lot and I'm not in New York or Cali where everyone has options. An interesting thing is that the GDP doesn't rise a big percentage in good times, still only a few points a year.
So how many people have to get f*cked in the market and have a severe and sudden change to spending habits before it shows up in the overall picture? Is it already happening now? Does anyone actually believe the fed raising a few basis points is doing this, or is it more likely the Naz itself? How else can we account for how suddenly things have gone to shit and how quickly consumers have stopped spending?
yeah, more bearish than ever after holiday's with the Clowns... (no offense to my family, but they'll be selling at the bottom)... |
