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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (1578)12/25/2000 7:47:08 PM
From: TobagoJack   of 74559
 
OT: Agreed. The average native Formosans have had it horrible from the KMT, after having had it horrible from the Japanese and are probably better off emigrating to the US before yet more mainlanders show up.

There is a big unknown developing right now on the Taiwan political scene that could cause ripples and maybe even assasinations (not uncommon in Taiwan) ... the ex-president Lee Tung-hui's buddies in the DPP and KMT are thinking of organizing another political party as they see President Chen has unwittingly undone in a few months all that was accomplished by Lee Tung-hui over more than a decade for Taiwan independence.

This third party, if materialized, may stir matters up a bit. Taiwan history during the early Ching dynasty is repeating itself, with the locals once again at each other's throat, economy quaking, and the warriors leaderless.

Lee's contribution to Taiwan independence was to split his own KMT party, conspire actively with the DPP to get pro-independence Chen elected following Lee's end of rule. Lee is adapt at working against his own colleagues, responsible in his youth for the death of his communist colleagues (yup, he was once a communist, and maybe still a Japanese sympathizer - not so complicated man transparent for all to oggle at). He is not a man you want standing behind you.

Alas, disappointingly to Lee, President Chen is not a big league player and has screwed it up by pissing off enough folks on all sides so that the fabulously wealthy KMT is once again uniting. Chen is effectively no longer in charge.

Got a sense of fellow alumni Lee along with other KMT bigwigs earlier this year from a friend's wedding. Also know some of the folks negotiating on behalf of China with Taiwan, learned, gentle but smiling mandarin thugs.

The 'negotiation' has been and will be so very chillingly unfair. The mainlanders seem to feel that the threat of war is only that, a threat that will occupy the minds, even as the promise of riches will occupy the hearts, all the while the life blood is siphoned off in copious quantities and at increasing speed. Divide and conquer has always been a fundamental and primordial success formulae.

The problem with President Chen is his and his team's uniformly small intellectual calibre and the total and absolute lack of experience with people and power. These skills are not to be "learnt on the job" during a developing crisis. They forget their main objective, much like many investors this year, namely to get a good deal while the getting is still good.
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