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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (82632)12/26/2000 9:16:04 AM
From: jim_p  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Morning comments on NG by Pru:

Natural Gas: Although temperature forecasts continue to moderate for the western half of the nation, below normal
expectations across the eastern half of the country through next week appear capable of supporting this market further. In addition to the weather, this week’s trade will be influenced by another round of AGA stats. We are projecting a storage withdrawal of 155 BCF. Today’s expiration of the Jan options and tomorrow’s expiration of Jan futures could accentuate volatility even further. We will look for some follow through from Friday’s softening in the Jan/Feb switch. We will continue to monitor the ability of the cash market to sustain a premium to the nearby screen. Such a development would signal a continued scramble for supplies and a renewed strengthening in the price curve. All factors considered, we continue to view the natural gas as a strong bull market that has yet to establish a longer term top. The commitment of trader’s report showed the funds with a miniscule net long position of only 2500 contracts with the small specs still net long by almost 10,000 contracts. Price outlook: We would suggest trading the market strictly from the long side for those traders rich enough to afford the margins. Amidst the current volatile trading environment, 2-4 month intramarket spreads represent a good proxy for an outright long position but with less risk and lower costs. Underlying fundamentals still appear sufficiently strong to force new record highs this week. In sum, a bullish trading posture is still favored.

Jim
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