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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: jayhawk969 who wrote (8486)12/26/2000 2:22:24 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
JD,
CELG in my opinion has become compelling. I believe the stock has been hit over concerns about slowing growth over Thalomid and Concerta's gains in the ADD market. However the valuation is now around 2b and the company has about $300m in net cash and should be profitable next year. Thalomid will become a $200-$400m cancer drug and the analogs being developed are more powerful and less toxic pre-clinical. Attende has major advantages over Concerta and Novartis is developing a time release formulation. I say take advantage of the sale. Some of the events that will drive the stock are as follows:


* Data from the Phase II trial of the first SelCID for the treatment of
Crohn s disease (1Q:01).
* Initiation of Phase III trial with Thalomid in MDS (1Q:01).
* Initiate Phase II/III trial of Thalomid for the treatment of colorectal
cancer (1Q:01).
* Announcement of Phase I/II data for IMiDs in the treatment of multiple
myeloma (2Q:01).
* Announcement of Thalomid Total Therapy data for the treatment of early
multiple myeloma (2Q:01).
* IND for a SERM for the treatment of cancer (2Q:01).
* FDA approval of Attenade (late 2Q:01 or early 3Q:01).
* Launch of Attenade (3Q:01).
* Announcement of a drug development partnership coming out of the Signal
pipeline (1H:01).

V1
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