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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2705)	12/26/2000 2:38:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Hi Robert, I didn't want to give the impression that I'm outright negative on Europe. I reserve that view for Japan. It is just that I think Europe will continue to underperform the US. So while I think they will prosper long term I think they will get less growth than the could if they addressed some structural issues. And as you rightly point out so could we. Allow me to clarify my position on the Euro as well. I have no problem with the idea of a unified currency. It is the execution of the idea that I have trouble with. There has not been sufficient convergance of the member economies and this will inevitably lead to problems. The same monetary policy that works for Germany does not suit Ireland or Greece. Also the treaty leaves to many loopholes, imo. It is a real problem that there is no Euro sovereign. To work I believe a united economic policy will require united political and sovereign conditions. That will be a long time coming. And if they expand to the east it will exacerbate the problem. Henry

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