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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (44104)	12/26/2000 6:54:04 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) of 57584

A good time to buy and hold? Ok, I'll go along with that as long as you are willing to hold LONG term. I just don't see a sustained rally starting anytime soon. 401K money? We had 401K money in November and December, a lot of good that did the market. Prices still went down. Tax selling over? Sure it is, but I don't see the kind of confidence required to start buying in volume. The kind of volume that will sustain a rally. FED cut? Sure, but any move there will be psychological. A psychological rally will provide false motivation, a sucker rally if you will. Any cut issued in January takes 6-9 months to work through the economy and have a positive effect on earnings. Earnings is what will drive the stock market up in the future and earnings are going to be terrible the next two quarters. Energy costs are at historical highs. I've read where some business energy costs have risen as much as 700%! That's a lot of money being diverted from the bottom line. We still have 75 basis points of rate increases to work down to the bottom line. Only 30-40% of companies have provided guidance so far and most of it has been negative. I expect more of the same. When has the Government ever implemented a plan that worked to perfection? A soft landing? History and odds imply that we'll overshoot that ambitious objective. The landing will be bumpy at best. In my opinion, there are more negatives than positives on the horizon. Caution is the buzz word of the day. Short term trades? By all means, yes. Establishing "core long term" holdings? I'm patiently waiting. I believe plenty of opportunities are ahead. My energy portfolio was up over 10% last Friday and another 10% today. I can afford to be patient. Best regards, dabum

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