Monti, I didn't comment one way or the other about chic's profitability. Stock Operator made a statement and I provided the links that proved that his statement was false.
But irregardless of what you think or say chic has made a helluva lot more money than the longs. :-)
In the past 8 months or so, you are no doubt correct that those who have been short CSCO have made more than those who were long.
But, as I once said to Luc, the worst possible stock market scenario that he could imagine is still a buying opportunity for me. I played the bubble very aggressively and I benefited personally from 5.5 years of CSCO growth. I diversified along the way and I have had no problem playing the dark side.
Since I didn't make any substantive comment to Stock Operator's post and since I have never made a public call on price of CSCO's stock, I don't see where there is any crow to eat.
I will however, finally....after 4 1/2 years on SI, make a call on CSCO's stock price. I will take the opposite side of your prediction that, if someone were to establish a position at today's closing stock price, and if similar trading vehicles are used (long common vs. short common, long puts vs. long calls, short puts vs. short calls), a bullish position will beat a bearish position for almost any timeframe that you specify. On option positions, assume equivalent levels on ITM, OTM or ATM for the options positions (if a long put position is 5pts ITM, then the opposite comparative call position would also be 5pts ITM and we would assume the same expiration).
Now, I am not trying to say that money can't be made on bearish trades, but I do believe that the bottom was put in last week (and stated so on SI at the time) and that the trend will be up from here.
BTW: I posted two purchases of CSCO last week on another thread (approx. 37 and 42). So I have already put my money where my mouth is.
chic said that he wouldn't cover his CSCO positions until it reached single digits. If he is being true to his word, he would still be short. Of course, I suspect that he has been taking profits along the way, despite his single digit call, much like the longs were probably doing for the past 6 years as well.
In what timeframe do you think we will see CSCO in single digits? I believe that CSCO will see $80/share before it sees $9.99/share. Do you want to take the opposite side of that prediction?
Can we assume that you are still aggressively short the market and still shorting every bounce??
JXM |
