Mepci,
I did well by avoiding the HyperPE and INUT stocks, and by not holding for any length of time. I'll also stay out of the market if I don't like what I see. I did not do very much at all this fall. This year, for the most part I traded large techs, trying to catch them after a big downward move, and playing them for very short term rebound moves. It worked very well. I did not short very much at all. In retrospect, just shorting the high flyers and sitting back all year would have been the best strategy. Of course, reasonable folks that tried that last year got burned badly as the crazies continued to bid tech up. In any event, the action this year favored traders. I'm sure that up till this spring, many folks did better than me with minimal effort, just 'buy em and hold em'. As for Dell, it's gotta be near bottom. However, it's a pretty good bet that at least on the consumer side, there is going to be a significant effort to move that inventory that piled up due to slow sales (by Dell's competitors). Also, I have not seen Dell promote their workstations in the past the way they are doing so now. So, unless things are very strong on the server front I have a hard time seeing how they will beat by much, if at all.
Regards,
John
One other possibility - could they cut the 20% growth prediction as too high based on what has transpired in the box side of the business... |
