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Technology Stocks : Spectrian Co. (SPCT)
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To: Leo Francis who wrote (40)6/1/1997 10:38:00 AM
From: Frank Byers   of 738
 
I appreciate your input. I'd feel better about SPCT if I knew who their customers were besides QCOM and Nortel. You just don't see these 2 winning many infrastructure licenses around the world outside the US. I'm not even sure why Nortel uses linear amp's for their GSM networks given the fact that GSM doesn't not need a linear amp unless you want to amplify more that one channel. Every manufacturer I've worked with or investigated in the GSM business uses single carrier amplifiers, which are not required to be linear. Therefore I think the SPCT market is mainly for AMPS and CDMA systems, which is a big market to be sure but still QCOM and Nortel are not the dominant players here on the infrastructure side. You have to look at Motorola, Ericsson and Lucent as the big AMPS players, and Mot/Lucent have more CDMA base stations worldwide than Nortel/QCOM.

Plus, the fact that QCOM is looking at a second supplier....

Like I said, the barriers to entry in this market are not as great as some other electronic products. Amplifier companies are numerous, and the biggies like Mot, Lucent, Ericsson and Nokia roll their own anyway so how much growth can SPCT really have without some more customers?

I hope you're right. A little more profit taking and I'll be back in below 20.

good trading, and thanks for the input..

FB
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