Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: jim_p who wrote (82830)	12/27/2000 3:33:31 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) of 95453

Pertinent discussion vs. "cheerleading".../ jimp - a ? jimp - on that E&P production list; can you break out production growth via the drillbit verus acquisition ? As per some of our earlier discussion - the E&P's that "may" rise to further highs in a $4/$5 Nat Gas & $22-$25 Crude Oil environment vs. the $6-$9 NG & $30-$35 Crude environment of late; will be those who either are dramatically repairing badly damaged balanced sheets; or who will show significant production upside via the drillbit - be it exploitation, or exploration; or who are cfps multiple laggards in their valuations. I really like EEX & TLM in both regards there... I own some & will add on any & all weakness sub $5 on EEX and still have my $29 TLM here in my "basket portfolio"... watching some badly financially damaged micro-small caps here as well; but salivating at shorting the mo-mo leaders however. How about a discussion on what E&P's offer the greatest upside to production going "FORWARD" into 2001. Who are the potential "exploration" stories for 2001 ? Who are the potential "financial turnaround/balance sheet repair stories in 2001 ? ... as oppossed to EOG, BRR, COG, TMBR etc who at 8-10+ x cfps - will shortly be great short candidates shortly imo... I also haven't seen much discussion on what has continually worked in the OSX, - worked of late for me in the XAU move etc - and that is flipping out of the Mo-Mo Breakout leaders & rolling those profits over into laggards... who often get back & filled on the tail end of these up-wave moves within the cycle. ie: taking $ from EOG APC APA COG BRR TMBR - rotating into lower cfps multiple laggards like TLM, or NEV; integrateds like KMG, OXY; or even P etc... Another discussion that I would be interested in hearing; is how the E&P fans - support the E&P's here moving up in 2001 to new highs with significantly lower Oil & Gas Prices & the resulting lower sequential cfps & eps #'s & the negative comparable quarters that are coming ? Further discussion on what is "later cycle" & what has traditionally worked & what has not worked & rolled over in the late cycle as we reach the horizon peak of the cycle...would be pertinent. Possibly some late cycle strategy & not just back-slapping cheerleading ? ... we still just might see that OSX 150+ "Rig Party"... but there's going to be as much money made on the downside shortly as their is on the upside. jimp & some of the longtime industry people - that brings up another great "pont/counter point" discussion - the potential of a multi-year 3-5-7 year expansion cycle. Personally; due to the changes in the market in the last few years; the emergence of technology stocks as a huge capital magnet; the drop of the energy stocks as a factor in the broad market indicies etc - will keep that form happening imho... as I can't see many Oilpatch stocks reaching new highs 2-4 years from now; coming off OSX 140ish at $35 Oil & $9 Nat Gas ? ... anyone think that 3-5 years of $3-$4 Nat Gas & $22-$25 Oil can support a continued 3-5 more years to this expansion ? If so; how high can the OSX go ? Will those final 3-4 years just be 6-10% annual gains ? I mean; how high can EOG, or PTEN for example go ? - will they get dot.com multiples ? Personally; I don't buy it happening... OSX high will come in April/May 2001 if the US Economy doesn't crash & burn; or spring 2002 at the latest imo; if we have a bit of a soft-recession this coming spring & recover into 3-4 Fed Cuts in late 2001-early 2002.Many stocks have and/or will see their highs shortly... I like Offshore Drillers & Deepwater service/seismic as the best late cycle plays fwiw. How about a little pertinent discussion...

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