Aus and thread -
Correct me if I'm mistaken, but Eli has repeatedly said that the market for high density flash will be capacity constrained for a long time. Today's production was sold out probably 2-3 quarters ago, and no announcements have been made suggesting anything has changed. One report that was published a few months back talked about high density flash capacity constraints through at least 2004.
My conclusion, therefore, and supported by what our 'channel checks' have repeatedly confirmed, is that there continues to be a shortage.
Since SanDisk books revenues when the final customer buys them, I expect Q4 sales to vastly exceed Q3 sales. I have seen nothing to support anything other than a revenue and earnings blowout for Q4.
Just my 2c.
OT, some of the AG theories are interesting and all, but I submit (as have others) that the NAZ valuation and even SNDK's current market value should not be viewed by any responsible investor as anything other than par for the course. I have virtually no doubt that SanDisk will continue to plow ahead, and this will be reflected in the stock price, probably sooner (like within 2 months) rather than later IMO.
My prediction, which probably isn't worth much more than the electrons transmitting it, is that SanDisk's next earnings report will be stellar, and all the myopic WS types will suddenly (perhaps temporarily) 'get it,' and we'll start getting more calls of 'SanDisk is different, undervalued, it isn't commodity memory, but rather at the heart of the mobile device boom.'
I think SanDisk is a triple within the year from here.
Having said that, could shorts drive it to $15 on the back of more ignorant evaluations? Perhaps. But long-term, we've got much better upside than down from here. Again, IMO.
Andre |
