Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 170.90

-1.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: marginmike who wrote (90830)	12/27/2000 8:58:53 PM
From: Jordan Levitt	Read Replies (2) of 152472

<<My view is there is a VICIOUS recession in store in the next year. Ive been calling this since June-July. Back then People that I was nuts now they think I am being overly pessimistic. In 3 months they will think I am a genius. Good luck, and be carefull these are dangerous sea's you are navigating. >> Hi Mike, I disagree with your recession call for the following reasons: 1) Between 5% and 6% productivity growth 2) Fed lowering interest rates, most recessions start with a "choking off' of economic activity due to rising interest rates. Don't fight the Fed ! 3) No signs of inflation anywhere ex of energy. None ! 4) Oil has already rolled over in my opinion. 5) Once we get into 2000, and everyone begins to look at 2001 earnings, P/E/'s will appear to be further compressed. 6) 4% unemployment. This is very high by traditional measures; and quite un-recessionary. 7) Tax cuts...they are coming and coming soon. (Even in Canada ! We are your largest trading partner)That is going to help everyone pay down some of that large personal debt. 8) Global recovery. In this era of globalized trade, the U.S. has profited despite a weak Asia and Europe...they have nowhere to go but up. 9)While tech stocks were clearly over-valued, there are some compelling values out there. While their growth rates were seriously over-estimated (if estimated at all), they are now being under-estimated. 10)I am an optimist; you know, the bit about the glass being half full and all ?????

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