Robert- Just for the sake of argument, I don't think the fiber optics/Dell analogy is really that solid...Fiber optics stocks may be overvalued and have further to fall, but fiber optics is, in my view, no where near the maturation level of PCs '95-'00...also, Dell was successful (stock-wise, hyper-growth wise) as the #3 guy getting to be #1 guy...part of their problem (stock-wise, growth-wise) being the law of larger numbers, and in part due to the maturation of the industry....I don't know if either of these arguments play in well for a stock like JDSU (fiber optics components), etc.....spending on their stuff may or may not take a dip, but the buildout will go on for a long, long time, and there are only a few companies doing it (with pretty un-like PC margins)..and JDSU looks like they could fit a "gorilla-like" status better then Dell ever could (or hope to)...
Having said that, I have no idea what those stocks (fiber optic component suppliers) are worth, and they do indeed appear overvalued in this new era of (sane-r?) valuation. I only bring up these argument for you to consider because I have been burned more than once by "imperfect" analogies (haven't we all?)..we'll see...good luck...on the over-valuation play alone I think you'll probably do well... |
