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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: chowder who wrote (44253)	12/28/2000 9:24:59 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (4) of 57584

Holidility plays ignoring Fear-mongers. Playing these has been like shooting fish in a barrel. BLUE has been exceptional. 3 days of steady gains. 3.5 billion shares short in market. A new record. If that isn't the consummate contrarian indicator, I don't know what is. Can you imagine the Mother of All Rallies when all those shares start running for cover? The biggest players will get the best execution. But all those smaller traders will get trapped short in their greed by holding too long. . . .the same fatal mistake that some longs made in the Spring. The beauty of our Springtime Tech exit was that it happened BEFORE the top was hit. Likewise, short-covering ahead of the masses will be seen as the best move. I expect several Short-4DMLs during January through April period. These squeezes will end in terrible margin liquidations among short-sellers. The problem is that when longs get liquidated, their ports can only go to zero, whereas there is no limit to how much short-sellers can lose. Just ask some of the short-sellers that lost everything and THEN some back in March. Suddenly, houses are going up for sale to pay margin debt. Betting that the many billions of dollars on the sidelines will not get put to work during January is perhaps the riskiest of all the bets since Cramer's Hedge Fund shorted the dotcoms in 1998 and 1999. Best wishes all. . . Rande Is

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