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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2755)12/28/2000 10:34:57 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht   of 3536
 
Robert, mostly agree.

Europe is not an export dependent region.
 Neither are the US: both regions make about 15% of total trades with exports. Warnings from companies taking a weak Euro as an excuse for lowered sales seems a bit overstated to me.
Add to this, that with more countries entering the Union, Europe will be even less dependent on exports. But this is a multi-years process.

I look for the dollar to sink to a cyclical level of about $1.1 per euro and longer range fall to $1.2-1.3 per euro.
Checked the statistics of the ECB. Unfortunately, the Euro data only have been computed from Jan 1990.
In these 11 years, the median price for the Euro is at $1.1983 (max 1.4583/ min 0.8252) and Yen 136.5 (max 197.29/min 89.3).
These 11 years do not include the Reagan Dollar which would lower the median price.
Fall of the Dollar? IMHO nothing more than a return to average.
The US will provide lots of the technology that Europe needs to fuel their expansion.

And vice-versa: cell-phones, cable networks or copper semi-conductors to name a few are among Europe's strenght. (I'll remain silent over voice technology with that LHSP fiasco.<g>).
But agree, Europe is net importer of technology.
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