Koll/JQP<Don't have gold and, with the fed likely to cut 50 basis points in January, don't want it! >
..."Q" - few see through your "Cut & Paste" often plageristic and hystrionic babble as I do.
I've seen your innumerable "cut & paste" comments from various news sources , or analysts reports - where you draw the completely wrong fundamental conclusion; or otherwise step on your own d ---; time & time again not having the vaguest idea about what you're "cutting & pasting" and commenting on.
Yes; indeed the bond markets do appear to have priced in a coming Fed Cut... but, do you think that perhaps much, if not even most of that "effect" is perhaps allready priced in here ?
Certainly; we could see the momenteum/speculative daytraders ramp things up off the actual news; but would that be a selling/profit taking event or a buying event ?
Think about it "Q" - don't you think that most of it may be priced into the market allready ? ... and if there is a Rally; won't it be a selling/profit taking event ? - you know; "livetime" - not one of those rallies & retraces where you would soon thereafter opine - "glad I sold that pop" after the fact...
Do you think perhaps that a .5o bp cut vs. a .25 bp cut; may spook the market; especially foreign investors - thinking that maybe things are worse than thought ?
Also; what happens if the Fed doesn't cut ?
Will Bush rescue the Clinton Legacy will a series of early & aggressive Fed Cuts ? - could he be as stupid as he often sounds (VBG) ? - or; will he allow the "R" word to play out a bit; softening; but not turning around the Recession & Market Bubble that Clinton & Rubin/Greenspan created ? Will he be smart enough to do this & poise himself & his Party for re-election; or will he be stupid enough to acquiesce to pressure to rescue the Market & thus Clinton's legacy ?
What happens if the Fed Cut is not delivered; given much of the Fed Cut (being so obvious)perhaps being priced in here ? - what do the markets do then ?
Also "Q" - Gold just hit a 3 week price high of $277.50 wednesday - just as the Bond Market is totally pricing in the Fed Cut - so explain that ?
rd.yahoo.com*http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B3B1E1DDC%2D19B1%2D4043%2DB77D%2D3AE20BE7A182%7D
Also; FYI - fundamentally; Rate Cuts - weaken the US Dollar & the Price of Gold primarially & fundamentally trades inversely to the US Dollar... Gold's weakness is primarially (not totally) a result of King Dollar - for example the Price of Gold has been up substantially in So Africa because of currency reasons... alas - Gold is money/currency; allways was, is ; and allways will be...
It's a Currency thing "Q"
- of which you haven't the vaguest clue... but; as usual you hystrionically jump on the chihuahua bandwagon showing your very limited grasp of basic economic concepts...
Cut & Paste "Q" ... stick to what you do best (VBG).
...Gold will be just fine...again - the single cheapest 90 day window in XAU history; the best buy/timing call in the last 15 years of the XAU ?...we shall just have to wait & see now won't we ?
But; I and a few others have already talked about & been rotating out of the Index leaders into small caps & the lagging Silver Plays as the "speculative flight to safety" money may indeed exit on a Fed Cut - giving us a double bottom re-test potentially; which would be another welcome buying & trading opp; and a helluva technical endorsement of a final cyclical bottom.
"Q" - we've allready anticipated the scenario you're alluding to (even though you clearly don't understand the US DOllar/Rate Cut - POG relationship).
That's what separates "us" from "you" - we act, don't react. We use trading disciplines - stops, profit taking, intra-sector roation from breakout leaders to laggards & have not just anticipated a potential double bottom re-test; we have strategies & plans in place that are poised to buy/trade it & welcome it.
"Q" - perhaps someday you will lead & not follow; perhaps someday you'll bring an original concept to the front, climb out on a limb, or answer a "livetime" question in the heat of battle during an Oilpatch meltdown & not disappear offline - untill the smoke clears - claiming to once again have been on vacation...re-appearing to merely jump on the bandwagon & lead the cheerleading & time & time again watch all your gains rollover & disappear.
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Now; as far as the little old green monster crumudgeon Kollmnh's comments....
Koll; I don't insult everyone - far from it; not Douglas V Fant, not Big Dog & those who graciously share their real world industry experience and who have been here thru thick & thin and not many others... especially those that have some "livetime" reality to their toughts, strategies & commentary... it's the crackpots, petty jealous chichuahua's and phony bull$h!^ artists that I "insult" as you call it... so here we go !
re: <<AS for the broader markets and the NAZ in particular, calling for a decline made you one of countless numbers to do so. Who around here really needed that advice?
Constantly stating the obvious makes it no more important>>
Koll; I don't think that "Everyone" was shorting the SOX in August; and far, far from everyone called for the futher NAZ collapse ? - Far from it; I was "flamed" by innumerable posters here of late - when I called for shorting into a "FURTHER" NAZ collapse & I was right... you guys can't have it both ways ? - you can't ankle bite & chastise me when I make the call & then minimize the result when I am right (ROFLMAO~) !
...Especially not after the fall NAZ bounce rally when everyone here was seeing a rally. Was "Everyone" shorting the QQQ's, the BTK; or calling for NAZ 2558 etc ? ... don't you recall richarddeanbagtnell's et al's chastism of my shorting tech call into that earlier rally ? - that was far, far from what "everyone" was doing ? - what are you smoking ? And as far as the OSX setting "new highs" - again; is 120 a new high ? - or, is it in reality "been here & done that territory" ?
And as far as me missing much here in the Oilpatch of late ?
Well my short side trade's in tech - have still outperformed the Oilpatch & I did catch a few stops & starts for a couple of 10-20% scalps... MRL did very, very well for me as my favorite trader 2-3 times this quarter, caught a couple of moves in MVK, GLBL and a few others and I still have a few out of the money spring calls - if we see OSX 135ish & $30 MRL those calls will do very, very well for me...and as far as a trading strategy; tight stops kept me from participating for more than a few tic's on the downdrafts; yes I did stop & start out of a few false starts; but I made a nice little hit on the sub 100 OSX pullback - but yes; I did exit early at 110ish - missing the last 10 points here; allthough MRL was 40% of that entry for me & popped 20% doubling the OSX 10% index move... I'll take those moves in this environment - dancing in & out of 40-50% cash positions all day long.
But more importantly Koll; I have all ready cashed in the "Big & Easy Money" - having been here from "THE Bottom" - the dark days of the fall of 1998; I was "levered" when being levered carried a high rewward/low risk attractiveness & paid off large in the "Big & Easy" money in the spring rallies of 1999 & 2000. I rang the register off of both of those moves and the final OSX top rally in August as well.
Did I miss the final 10 points of the OSX top in August ? yes; so what... Did I miss the last 10 points here ? - yes; but - "been here & done that" at these levels all ready ? - so what... in this broad market risk environment & with this looking to me as a very high potential speculative top to the Nat Gas E&P's; I see much quicker & lower risk returns by going short - here soon; on the next significant weather related NG move... and not being arrogant; but I'll be making money & lots of it on the short side - before most see the top & rollover once again -ala Sept 1999 - as 90% of this thread watched all their E&P profits disappear right before their eyes - all of it...
Deja Vu - all over again ?
I think so; but as usual - we shall see; but remember - it aint profit untill you ring that register & put it in the drawer...
You guys rode the XNG down more than a few times & now it's finally back to it's highs - good for you; if you didn't capitualte on the 30% collapse from OSX 140 to 94; and you are selling here - good for you. If you ride the rollover in the E&P's for the third time & give it all right back .... what's new ?
Personally - I caught 90% of the ride to OSX 140; exiting at 125ish... No one times exact tops, or bottoms perfectly - my goal is to keep the middle 65% of these later cycle moves & I've done a good job at that.
I'd allways rather be a Pig that got fat by catching 65-90% of a move & cashing it in - versus being a Hog who gets slaughtered time & time again by holding & folding on retraces; or watching your profits continually rollover & disappear time & time again as they've done in this volatile cyclical sector.
I am very happy that I took 75% of my money out of the market in this past August at OSX 125ish as that was 90% of the eventual OSX 140 high - as I saw some very significant danger signs forming on the horizon in the broad market & global economies & viewed this bubble-run as an anomaly - not worth tempting fate further on...
Worthy of some trading & scalping - yes; but certainly not a hold environment while being "fully invested" and most obviously not a "MAX MARGIN" environment... at least not at OSX 120-25 directly into the collpase to OSX 94 anyway - right "Q" ?
In my August OSX exit I also closed out one of the best short-sided trades I have ever made - shorting the SOX; and since have picked up a couple of 10-20%long moves here in trading/not holding the Oilpatch;admitedly as well as a few false starts in the 115-120 range where tight trailing stops did exactly what they should do - prevent me from riding that downtrurn from OSX 120 to 94; as many here obviously did.
But; during that 30% oilpatch correction - I also caught some very profitable shortside trades in the NAZ, the BTK etc and most importantly imho; built a portfolio weighted position in Gold; in literally the single cheapest 90 day window in XAU history... along with some very, very nice trading opps as many stocks like NEM HM KGC HGMCY GOLD et al bounced 40-60% off those bottoms & the XAU index has now bounced 20% from it's bottom. Even now the Silver stocks like SIL & PAAS are offering tremendous buying opps as laggards - just as the US Mint ran out of physical Silver for their coinage & minting program...
So we'll just have to wait & see on Gold & Silver - the XAU moves in very broad cycles & I've got a 2 year window on this play fwiw - the temptation will be to not take profits too early at XAU 75ish (a 50% move) and keep "some" for the very high potential of the 6th run to XAU 150ish in the last 15 years - making it a "triple".
Personally imo - the XAU is very "event" driven sector and "events" are hard to predict; but more predictably it is also currency related - and my move was as much funamental value driven as it was a play against the insustainability of King DOLLAR with our present account deficit,the Market Bubble collapse and the need for Fed Cuts - which weakens the dollar.
Go back & read the posts to determine what really happened this last quarter or so in the Oilpatch - the vast majority here were either allready fully invested (never having sold as yourself) or "max margined" directly into that swoon - and we know what "really" happend to those that were on that collapse to OSX 94...
Few took profits into that final top leg to OSX 140 earlier this year; and few (allthough a few here did)exercised any trading plans, or strategies in avoiding that 30% Oilpatch collapse we just saw & thus were not poised to either buy; or trade into the collapse sub OSX 100.
I guess we'll let them cheerlead the return to where we allready were in most cases ?
Point in fact; the OSX is still 20 points under it's prior high & your beloved RRC is still a Buck less than it was from where many of us here cashed out of the first & most profitable RRC run from $2 to $7 back in the summer of 1999 - nearly 18 months ago ! ... avoiding that painfull 15-18 month dead money - watch the paint dry "ratchet down"... as the rest of the Oilpatch doubled & tripled all around you... Yes; I did do some trading in RRC after the "big hit" - some good, some stopped out false starts in that "late to the party" ratchet down - but; what I did not do Koll; was do what you did - sitting like a "deer in headlights" and chase the 15 month dead-money collapse of RRC as the rest of the E&P's and Oilpatch doubled & tripled all around it.
Yes; I did chastise & make fun of the "Yahoo Range Riders" and caught their wrath as they & you chased it down from $5.50 to $5 , to $4.50 to $4, to $3.50 to $3, to $2.50 and then finally to that mystical $1 15/16ths that everyone here points to as their "claim to fame" (roflamao)....
If you want to see who made the "Big & Easy Money" on RRC ... link here: June 30 1999 - SI Post # 47130
Message 10336969
<< "...I just got lucky - sold all RRC yesterday at $7 - which was a printed, price target for about 3 analysts - guess what - it sold off $1 today on profit taking right at $7 ! I guess we need to believe them when they set price targets... I put the $ into more RIG, missed DO; but got more CRK at $3 7/16 intra-day">>
...and browse a few "next & previous" 40 messages... "some" of us - got the first ride from $3 to $7 RRC run and then went on to double & triples accross the board instead of entering at the $5.50 retrace and then continually averaging down,or as you guys like to say - "ratcheting down" & in grandeoise SargeK-esque fashion becoming obsessed with a single stock to your financial detriment...
But; Koll - for your & brmahoodwinks sake; I am glad to see that you've probably made about 30% "net" on your RRC after 18 months of continual averaging down & back up - to your probable cost basis of approx $4.50 (from what I saw in your posts)as I remember you being fully invested at that $4.50 "ratchet down" range... so I guess you obviously must have dumped the few "real" winners you had like PTEN etc to keep averaging down in RRC ... but; it's your "story" so we'll let you tell it... funny; on Yahoo,or SI ... I don't see your name; or any of the other Late to the Party - "Yahoo-Range Riders" on any of the SI, or Yahoo thread logs back in that "Big & Easy Money" run from $3 to $7 - but; I sure see a lot of "deer in headlight" posts all the way down from $7 to $1 15/16ths & back up here finally to $6 - after 18 months of deadmoney & missing the real "Sweet Spot" of the E&P cycle as everything else doubled & tripled all around you... you "late to the Party" Range Riders were only surpassed in your re-write of reality by SargeK & his FGH obsession and perhaps JQP on his multiple- MAX MARGIN mis-steps... and PS: what was up with running ole "Q" off the Yahoo thread here of late (VBG) ? - still the same ole' private "Koffee Klatch" - where you can't stand anyone pointing out reality, or your foibles, misteps, sitting in dead money, continual averaging down; or general "re-write" of RRC history (VBG)... ?
Spinmeisters & ankle biters... can't live with 'em; but really don't want to live without 'em - as biting back is so much fun...
Koll; you've never been able to run with the "Big Dogs" - so back to the RRC-porch on Yahoo Chihuahua-breath(VBG)...
Keep the "Yippees & Wow's" coming... the best Risk vs Reward play is puts & shorts on the Nat Gas pureplay E&Ps very shortly..... but; if you got the offshore drillers & a few of the leader service co's here during that sub 100 crash; hold em - they will be the place to be come our annual "Spring Rally" - pending we don't crash on our economic landing here shortly... we're rolling over to later cycle plays - the "peak" is coming up on the horizon and don't make the mistake that will turn out to be fatal; by waiting untill you see the "bottom" as it will be too late... In the Oilpatch - you had better be taking profits into the "peak" appearing on the horizon - because the rollover is hard & swift and few ever see it coming...
And if you can't see the "peak" on the Nat Gas Horizon - coming soon...may God have mercy upon your souls...
- perhaps Roebear the Weatherman's "perfect storm" that will hit Wall Street this coming week - may trigger the final speculative up move to the E&P's ? - I was hoping for a California collapse... but; Deja Vu all over again is coming for you guys once again... don't fail to be ringing the register here all the way up boys...as "Deja Vu all ove again rollover" is coming to a threatre near you & soon (VBG) ~
Ciao ~ |
