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Technology Stocks : For Hedge Fund Analysts and Managers
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To: KM who wrote (451)12/28/2000 12:48:42 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (1) of 499
 
The odds are in favor of it in my view. They will beat revenue estimates handily whether they preannounce it or not. They will discuss why their software sells whether an economic slowdown happens or not. There is no inventory to worry about so the numbers are all clean. That said, the bears can talk about eventual deceleration in deferred revenue growth, IT spending slowdowns and how B2B isn't happening and whatever other arguments they can dream up. Meanwhile, Ariba will continue their run of the most impressive numbers by a software company that I have ever seen, including Netscape's.

They present at the Morgan Stanley conference during the second week of January so an upside preannouncement should come during the first week so they can talk about their momentum at the conference.

Turns out that B2B infrastructure build is happening in a big way and it has enough momentum to power through this economic slowdown and then see another leg of growth once the economy improves.

CIO's and IT managers have the same habits of stock traders. Slam on the spending brakes and then realize they are too far behind so they go into panic buy mode again. Q1 might be a tough quarter for a lot of tech companies which are seeing the brakes on in their segments. If you are not participating in large new area of the economy, of course a weak economy is going to hit ya. However, B2B & wireless should be areas that will power right through an economic slowdown. Stock leaders should emerge out of these segments.
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