SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: J.T. who wrote (5808)12/28/2000 1:03:17 PM
From: David Lee Smith  Read Replies (2) of 19219
 
The big surprise will be that the FED will NOT decrease rates in January as the market expects. Odds are strongly against it. First, inflation lags oil prices by one year. That means that inflation will not cool off until at least the beginning of March 2001 and probably not until October 2001. The Fed has cut interest rates only one time since 1991, and that was 1/4% on 1/31/96 to 5%. The next cut was not until 10/15/98 to 4 3/4%! My guess is that the Fed will stay in NEUTRAL until we see two quarters of economic data before lowering rates at the end of October 2001.

J.T., looks like the market likes the year-end; I've always suspected they jack it up so that fee based PM's can charge a greater amount. Also, I have a theory that at year-end, the brokers mark-up their inventory to sell to the flood of 401(k) money that generally comes during the first week of January. After that, the market gets more normal.

But in any event, I cannot see the S&P above 1360 under any circumstances. That's 2.33% upside potential. The risk is the re-test of the previous lows, or 1250, down 5.94% from the current 1328.98 level at 11:38 am CST.

The MomentuMonkey model still shows us to be NEUTRAL, with a negative bias. The new target price is 1301, down 2.1%. Both Valuation and Momentum indicators are NEUTRAL.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News