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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Chris who started this subject	12/28/2000 1:06:16 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (2) of 42787

The big surprise will be that the FED will NOT decrease rates in January as the market expects. Odds are strongly against it. First, inflation lags oil prices by one year. That means that inflation will not cool off until at least the beginning of March 2001 and probably not until October 2001. The Fed has cut interest rates only one time since 1991, and that was 1/4% on 1/31/96 to 5%. The next cut was not until 10/15/98 to 4 3/4%! My guess is that the Fed will stay in NEUTRAL until we see two quarters of economic data before lowering rates at the end of October 2001.

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