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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (37109)	12/28/2000 1:24:50 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (4) of 54805

Cha2, << Since you have no opinion on EDGE, you seem to be relying on GSM/GPRS as the player to win next year, two years from now, three....etc. worldwide >> That appears to me to be the way it is shaping up, between 2001 & 2004. << general agreement that CDMA of some flavor will dominate new spectrum. Or do you see a non CDMA winner in new spectrum? >> CDMA all the way. The sooner the better. << In current spectrum are you saying that the "ubiquitousness"" of GSM/GSPR and its "robust data services" are the means of winning? >> Yes. I would not have said this one year ago. The solidarity of the 800 MHz/1900 MHz ANSI-41 based America's (for both 2.5G/3G services) would have left GSM as an also ran. If we look at significant events that affect the course of future technology decisions this year we can not ignore: * The WRC meetings in Istanbul which as it turns out have caused both the US and Canada (and Latin America) to reexamine * The Anatel decision in Brazil which has major implications for all of Latin America, and will influence spectrum decisions outside of Brazil). * The creation of GERAN within 3GPP, and 3GPP's new role as standards body for GSM/EDGE/UTMS * The AWS "technology flip" (which will have repercussions for Cingular). << Since in most of the world outside Europe there will be head to head competition between GSM/GPRS and CDMA/1x(EV) starting next year or in 2002 and thereafter, why is the outcome so clear? >> First, it is my opinion that by the time 1xEV becomes commercially deployable that GPRS will be pretty entrenched. I'm not sure that the outcome is clear. I am as foggy about how successful 1xEV will be (outside of existing CDMA networks) as I am about whether or not EDGE will ever see the light of day. I personally remain convinced that 1xEV will not ever be installed by a 3GPP member UNTIL and UNLESS CDG becomes a member of 3GPP. I think that will happen at the proper point in time. It may not happen till 1xEV-DV is standardized and accepted as an ITU IMT-2000 standard. I suspect that by this time next year I'll have a clearer picture of how 1xEV will play in the big wide world of wireless data. << In what way is GPRS superior to 1x - let alone 1xEV? >> From the perspective of speed and efficiency GPRS (the data overlay) is in no way superior to 1x/1xEV. It is in fact inferior. It will however, permit "effective" throughput of upwards of 256 kbps by 2004. This is great network reuse, IMO. It will also serve well the wireless data requirements of a goodly number of users of mobile wireless telephony. GPRS is simply a cost effective mid life upgrade to a comprehensive end to end platform and it allows forward compatibility to W-CDMA and backward compatibility to GSM, and GRX will be one of the keys to its success. It is unfortunate that comprehensive cross modal standards for 1xMC/1xEV were not established perhaps 18 months earlier ... but the wireless data tornado will kick off in current spectrum with a lot of GPRS and some 1xMC and 1xEV. I wish there were more CDMA in this mix. This is a standards game. It is a monumental clash between a proprietary and open architecture and committee based architecture. I can not resist citing Geoff Moo re's slides on this subject just one more time: fuji.stanford.edu - Eric -

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