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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam
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To: Boplicity who wrote (8186)12/28/2000 2:49:29 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 13572
 
Greg, my "overvalued" and willingness to short JNPR
is based on growth, competition, a slowing economy, absurd PE's in relation to growth, charts that look terrible etc.

I am now looking for fundamental viewpoints that say I may be wrong. Many base their decisions on TA alone and do well at it. I knew that JNPR's business was routers and they were riding high on expectations of eating into CSCO's share.

The fact that CSCO had a new router, was reason for me to pause and ask a few questions. Now I have more fundamental reasons to dislike JNPR. I seriously doubt that JNPR can keep eating into CSCO's market at the same pace that they have. Thus I see JNPR's growth estimates a quite questionable.

JNPR's growth for next year is supposed to be 77%
JNPR's 5 year growth is supposed to be 50%
Personally I doubt those numbers.
Even if met, does that justify a PE of 284?

284 years for $1 to return $1.
=========================================================
Of course RIMM is even more totally absurd. The height of absurdity. A current PE of 1500, and expected to make zero profit next year while they "advertize" the Blackberry name.

Absurd.
At some point this will fall to 10, and I will keep reloading PUTs if they can drive this up on low volume.

M
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