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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.03

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: flatsville who wrote (65417)	12/28/2000 5:34:11 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Bush only has to be concerned with 2002-2004. If the economy tanks for 2001 and even into 2002, then so be it. If it recovers by 2004 he will be re-elected. Voters do not want to risk a change so soon during a recovery. And I disbelieve that the average voter is going to blame it on Bush. The stock market made people feel poor last Spring and Summer, and this Fall's decline was the icing on the cake. They voted with their wallets, not only ousting Gore, but went slow at X-mas. The vast majority accept the press as biased, so it is more of a family dinner table decision. Why can't Sally get her Mustang this X-Mas?? Mom and Dad tell her it is because their stocks sank all year. The key is that Greenspan will not cut rates IMO at the end of January if Bush pushes tax relief during the first days of his administration. The January rally will lift stocks, adding to the deterrent to lower rates. As long as unemployment remains below 5%, Greenspan will not act. That has been his true gripe all along. Full employment is the hazard to Greenspan above all else, IMO.

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