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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.50+1.4%2:53 PM EST

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To: pass pass who wrote (45456)12/28/2000 8:06:10 PM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (1) of 77398
 
pass pass,

If you look at CSCO's loans the could write the entire sum off in one quarter and the hit to earnings would be less than half a cent. If I recall CSCO has less than $400M (or around there) in total loans. Still, I don't think it's a waste of time to talk about technology and the fact that other carriers will pick up the load. The reason that I suggest looking at it that way is that for every "bad loan" CSCO has "x" number of good loans/investments. I simply think it's unrealistic to expect CSCO to succeed in every investment and every loan that they make... and many of our fellow bears make a habit of pointing out the failures of CSCO ignoring the successes and the bulls do the opposite. The truth is somewhere in between... However, from a technology macro view the market continues to steam ahead.

That all said we can't expect to support a 100% increase in the number of carriers when the market will only support a 20% or 30% increase. On balance though there is growth and on balance these carriers - new and old - build out infrastructure and use equipment from Nortel, Juniper, Sycamore, Cisco, Redback, Extreme, and others to execute. Not only do the carriers build out but so too do brick and mortar companies looking for web presence - whether it's in the form of supporting their own IT or whether through outsources like EXDS.

NAZ 10,000..... not so sure about that one but I do believe - unlike some that the NAZ will get back to it's highs within the next 5 years if not sooner.

OG
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