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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2744)	12/28/2000 8:43:13 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 3536

Ron, I really think all the people that think the feds are going to cut rate before the FOMC in late January are setting themselves up for disappointment. The evidence is not there that a rate cut is necessary, labor markets are still tight (the last report on new claims was actually a sizeable reduction, not an increase), unemployment will have to reach politically dangerous level (it used to be above 5% now probably 4.5%, but we are still only .1% above the nadir), forecasted growth will have to be under 2% (it is still in the 3% range). Just because the market got used to QOQ or YOY increases in profits in the double digit rate, a decrease of that increase to just 5% or even to no growth for a quarter is not a calamity that justifies reigniting the bubble we have all paid so dearly to deflate. I personally do not think that we get a rate cut before the March FOMC meeting, short, of course of a financial accident here or abroad. Zeev

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