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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm(QCOM) -> SpinCo
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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (143)12/28/2000 9:46:40 PM
From: David E. Taylor  Read Replies (1) of 172
 
UF:

The trigger will be the S-1/A filing, which Goldman/Lehman won't file until they have some reasonable assurance they can get the IPO to market at a time when they can command the maximum price for the offering.

IMO that will require a few things to come together for QCT/Spinco:

(1) More forward visibility on QCT ASIC sales potential - firming of the roll out schedule of next generation CDMA, W-CDMA, possible entry into GSM markets, etc. - all of which depend on a host of factors which have been discussed at length on the main QCOM thread. This will allow the underwriters to place the maximum positive spin on QCT/Spinco forward revenues/earnings.

(2) Related to (1), the Q-1 earnings and CC forward looking comments from Dr. J in mid January.

(3) Market conditions for tech stocks generally and wireless handset/chipset companies in particular.

Goldman knows how to do this - witness the PALM spin off from 3Com last year. They'll need 4-6 weeks from the S-1/A filing to IPO day to do the road show to brokerage firms and institutional investors. They'll probably wait until mid/late January to see if Greenspan moves and if the market starts to pick up or not before filing, and that would push the IPO out to March at the earliest.

JMO.

David T.
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