Eric, I've been thinking about your posts on 3G, and have a mild migraine from trying to understand it all. I have to tell you that I'm in awe of your understanding of the intricate details of the technology road map and the ins and outs of the various international committees. But somehow I'm coming to different conclusions than you are; my confidence in Q is growing.
High speed cdma systems are installed and at work in Korea. They may not be 3G by committee standards, but aren't they the fastest game in town for data? And won't it be quite a while before the GSMers have anything that can match it?
Q's high speed and bandwidth efficient systems have been tested by our two national cdma providers, Verizon and Sprint, and both will begin upgrading their existing networks to 1X in 2001. As a result, they will be able to offer feature rich services that their competitors can't match, and will surely gain market share as a result. And the same scenario is being played out in Japan.
Granted, GSM is the world's dominant wireless interface at the moment, and its suppliers have put forth some powerful marketing arguments to keep it that way, but theirs is a voice-centric game, while Qualcomm's plays to data and the internet. The internet device sector is in its infancy, but is clearly exploding, and for the next 6 to 18 months, it would seem Q is the only game in town. That gives it time to grow a value chain of immense power. I fully expect to see cdma PC cards and laptops with antennas become a commonplace sight by the end of 2001.
Bandwidth is being auctioned off for BILLIONS, and the cost of carrying this debt to the "successful" bidders could be ruinous. Q has an operational voice/data system and when carriers employing it begin gaining market share, how long will the others wait for GPRS/WCDMA before they start pounding at Qualcomm's door?
Dr. J understands the technology, the market, and the opportunity, and has become very outspoken about the future of cdma. I can't fault him for that; who is better qualified? I seem to recall that when he was modest earlier in the year, we criticized him for it and begged for him to refute the FUDD. Besides, how many humble self made billionaires are there in the high tech world?
Eric, my portfolio is over 30% qcom, and I don't feel a need to reduce it at this critical point in time. Am I missing something?
jmho,
uf |
