F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV)

FFIV 256.91

-0.8%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: molemania who wrote (1336)	12/29/2000 2:06:26 AM
From: Analog Kid	Read Replies (1) of 1801

It looks like the overseas markets may be more robust than the US, which would explain part of the success of RDWR. But I am now suspecting that a bigger reason is superior management at RDWR. And maybe RDWR is starting to win sales away from F5 (they have a reselling agreement with compaq similar to F5/Dell). They just turned profitable last quarter, in a big way, and they just confirmed this quarter will meet estimates (I believe they may very well exceed estimates substantially.) I always have a show-me attitude with companies that have not turned earnings-positive yet, but now with a second quarter under their belt I will be riding RDWR. I had thought that F5 was the horse to bet on, (even though I am partial to Israeli companies) but now I am concerned about their management, having such a big miss and waiting till the very end of the quarter to warn. The most troubling sign in my opinion is that in the conference call they said they were planning on layoffs. This is very reminiscent of LGTO vs VRTS a little less than 12 months ago. I also remember in early 99 when NETA blamed Y2K and mysteriously CHKP kept doing great. I am selling my shares tomorrow and putting them into RDWR. Fortunately we are in a bear market and RDWR has also been beaten down. Note that RDWR has $8/share in cash! Unfortunately it is not easy to predict the winner of these competitions early on, before one of the companies start to screw up and shows their inferior management. I think it's often the management and not the products or technology that accounts for these downfalls. And before screwing up it's usually hard to assess the quality of management. It seemed like F5 was diversifying its product line very well and executing, financially and strategically, but now I am skeptical. Of course this could be a 1-time bump in the road but it usually isn't, especially with a young company. AK

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