Frank,
The internet device sector is in its infancy, but is clearly exploding, and for the next 6 to 18 months, it would seem Q is the only game in town.
Japan's iMode is by far the most successful game in town. I realize its limitations, culturally and otherwise, when it comes to contemplating world-wide use, but it's important that we appreciate the success of the competition.
That gives [CDMA] time to grow a value chain of immense power.
I agree with you to a point. But the quicker the value chain grows, the more powerful it will become. The longer it takes, the greater the possibility that it will be less strong than it would ideally be.
For me, the point Eric makes that hits home the strongest is his contention that Q's control over the standard might not be as strong in the end as we had hoped. Though it's expected that Q will benefit hugely from the wide deployment of WCDMA, there's little question that if CDMA2000 doesn't eventually dominate total CDMA use, Q will have less control over its value chain.
I fully expect to see cdma PC cards and laptops with antennas become a commonplace sight by the end of 2001.
I think you're being overly optimistic in that projection. I realize that I tend to be less optimistic about product adoption than most around here, but my experience is that most tech investors are overly optimistic and usually very wrong about that. Not to brag, but do you remember the discussion in late summer (or early fall at the latest) when I was the lone dissenter disagreeing with everyone who thought a new licensing agreement with Nokia was months if not one month away? That's just one example.
--Mike Buckley |
